School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?
Identifieur interne : 000286 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000285; suivant : 000287School dismissal as a pandemic influenza response: When, where and for how long?
Auteurs : Timothy C. Germann [États-Unis] ; Hongjiang Gao [États-Unis] ; Manoj Gambhir [États-Unis] ; Andrew Plummer [États-Unis] ; Matthew Biggerstaff [États-Unis] ; Carrie Reed [États-Unis] ; Amra Uzicanin [États-Unis]Source :
- Epidemics [ 1755-4365 ] ; 2019.
Abstract
We used individual-based computer simulation models at community, regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic peak, typically by 4–6 days for each additional week of dismissal. Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least 5–10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for vaccines to be implemented.
Url:
DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100348
PubMed: 31235334
PubMed Central: 6956848
Affiliations:
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for how long?</title><author><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A1">Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, NM 87545 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Nouveau-Mexique</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Theoretical Division, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gao, Hongjiang" sort="Gao, Hongjiang" uniqKey="Gao H" first="Hongjiang" last="Gao">Hongjiang Gao</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A2">Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A3">National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation><affiliation><nlm:aff id="A4">School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Victoria 3800 Australia</nlm:aff><wicri:noCountry code="subfield">Victoria 3800 Australia</wicri:noCountry></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Plummer, Andrew" sort="Plummer, Andrew" uniqKey="Plummer A" first="Andrew" last="Plummer">Andrew Plummer</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A2">Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Matthew" sort="Biggerstaff, Matthew" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M" first="Matthew" last="Biggerstaff">Matthew Biggerstaff</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A3">National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A3">National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Uzicanin, Amra" sort="Uzicanin, Amra" uniqKey="Uzicanin A" first="Amra" last="Uzicanin">Amra Uzicanin</name><affiliation wicri:level="2"><nlm:aff id="A2">Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30329 USA</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">États-Unis</country><placeName><region type="state">Géorgie (États-Unis)</region></placeName><wicri:cityArea>Community Interventions for Infection Control Unit, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta</wicri:cityArea></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Epidemics</title><idno type="ISSN">1755-4365</idno><idno type="eISSN">1878-0067</idno><imprint><date when="2019">2019</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="P3">We used individual-based computer simulation models at community,
regional and national levels to evaluate the likely impact of coordinated
pre-emptive school dismissal policies during an influenza pandemic. Such
policies involve three key decisions: when, over what geographical scale, and
how long to keep schools closed. Our evaluation includes uncertainty and
sensitivity analyses, as well as model output uncertainties arising from
variability in serial intervals and presumed modifications of social contacts
during school dismissal periods. During the period before vaccines become widely
available, school dismissals are particularly effective in delaying the epidemic
peak, typically by 4–6 days for each additional week of dismissal.
Assuming the surveillance is able to correctly and promptly diagnose at least
5–10% of symptomatic individuals within the jurisdiction, dismissals at
the city or county level yield the greatest reduction in disease incidence for a
given dismissal duration for all but the most severe pandemic scenarios
considered here. Broader (multi-county) dismissals should be considered for the
most severe and fast-spreading (1918-like) pandemics, in which multi-month
closures may be necessary to delay the epidemic peak sufficiently to allow for
vaccines to be implemented.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, M" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M">M Biggerstaff</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jhung, M" uniqKey="Jhung M">M Jhung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kamimoto, L" uniqKey="Kamimoto L">L Kamimoto</name></author><author><name sortKey="Balluz, L" uniqKey="Balluz L">L Balluz</name></author><author><name sortKey="Finelli, L" uniqKey="Finelli L">L Finelli</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, M" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M">M Biggerstaff</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Blower, Sm" uniqKey="Blower S">SM Blower</name></author><author><name sortKey="Dowlatabadi, H" uniqKey="Dowlatabadi H">H Dowlatabadi</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brown, St" uniqKey="Brown S">ST 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sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>États-Unis</li></country><region><li>Géorgie (États-Unis)</li><li>Nouveau-Mexique</li></region></list><tree><country name="États-Unis"><region name="Nouveau-Mexique"><name sortKey="Germann, Timothy C" sort="Germann, Timothy C" uniqKey="Germann T" first="Timothy C." last="Germann">Timothy C. Germann</name></region><name sortKey="Biggerstaff, Matthew" sort="Biggerstaff, Matthew" uniqKey="Biggerstaff M" first="Matthew" last="Biggerstaff">Matthew Biggerstaff</name><name sortKey="Gambhir, Manoj" sort="Gambhir, Manoj" uniqKey="Gambhir M" first="Manoj" last="Gambhir">Manoj Gambhir</name><name sortKey="Gao, Hongjiang" sort="Gao, Hongjiang" uniqKey="Gao H" first="Hongjiang" last="Gao">Hongjiang Gao</name><name sortKey="Plummer, Andrew" sort="Plummer, Andrew" uniqKey="Plummer A" first="Andrew" last="Plummer">Andrew Plummer</name><name sortKey="Reed, Carrie" sort="Reed, Carrie" uniqKey="Reed C" first="Carrie" last="Reed">Carrie Reed</name><name sortKey="Uzicanin, Amra" sort="Uzicanin, Amra" uniqKey="Uzicanin A" first="Amra" last="Uzicanin">Amra Uzicanin</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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